Present and potential future contributions of sulfate, black and organic carbon aerosols from China to global air quality, premature mortality and radiative forcing
Identifieur interne : 000085 ( PascalFrancis/Corpus ); précédent : 000084; suivant : 000086Present and potential future contributions of sulfate, black and organic carbon aerosols from China to global air quality, premature mortality and radiative forcing
Auteurs : Eri Saikawa ; Vaishali Naik ; Larry W. Horowitz ; JUNFENG LIU ; Denise L. MauzerallSource :
- Atmospheric environment : (1994) [ 1352-2310 ] ; 2009.
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- Pascal (Inist)
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Abstract
Aerosols are harmful to human health and have both direct and indirect effects on climate. China is a major contributor to global emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2), a sulfate (SO2-4) precursor, organic carbon (OC), and black carbon (BC) aerosols. Although increasingly examined, the effect of present and potential future levels of these emissions on global premature mortality and climate change has not been well quantified. Through both direct radiative effects and indirect effects on clouds, SO2-4 and OC exert negative radiative forcing (cooling) while BC exerts positive forcing (warming). We analyze the effect of China's emissions of SO2, SO42-, OC and BC in 2000 and for three emission scenarios in 2030 on global surface aerosol concentrations, premature mortality, and radiative forcing (RF). Using global models of chemical transport (MOZART-2) and radiative transfer (GFDL RTM), and combining simulation results with gridded population data, mortality rates, and concentration-response relationships from the epidemiological literature, we estimate the contribution of Chinese aerosols to global annual premature mortality and to RF in 2000 and 2030. In 2000, we estimate these aerosols cause approximately 470 000 premature deaths in China and an additional 30000 deaths globally. In 2030, aggressive emission controls lead to a 50% reduction in premature deaths from the 2000 level to 240 000 in China and 10 000 elsewhere, while under a high emissions scenario premature deaths increase 50% from the 2000 level to 720 000 in China and to 40 000 elsewhere. Because the negative RF from SO2-4 and OC is larger than the positive forcing from BC, Chinese aerosols lead to global net direct RF of -74 mW m-2 in 2000 and between -15 and -97 mW m-2 in 2030 depending on the emissions scenario. Our analysis indicates that increased effort to reduce greenhouse gases is essential to address climate change as China's anticipated reduction of aerosols will result in the loss of net negative radiative forcing.
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Format Inist (serveur)
| NO : | PASCAL 09-0377254 INIST |
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| ET : | Present and potential future contributions of sulfate, black and organic carbon aerosols from China to global air quality, premature mortality and radiative forcing |
| AU : | SAIKAWA (Eri); NAIK (Vaishali); HOROWITZ (Larry W.); JUNFENG LIU; MAUZERALL (Denise L.) |
| AF : | Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University/Princeton, NJ 08544/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 4 aut., 5 aut.); Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/Princeton, NJ 08540/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) |
| DT : | Publication en série; Niveau analytique |
| SO : | Atmospheric environment : (1994); ISSN 1352-2310; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2009; Vol. 43; No. 17; Pp. 2814-2822; Bibl. 3/4 p. |
| LA : | Anglais |
| EA : | Aerosols are harmful to human health and have both direct and indirect effects on climate. China is a major contributor to global emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2), a sulfate (SO2-4) precursor, organic carbon (OC), and black carbon (BC) aerosols. Although increasingly examined, the effect of present and potential future levels of these emissions on global premature mortality and climate change has not been well quantified. Through both direct radiative effects and indirect effects on clouds, SO2-4 and OC exert negative radiative forcing (cooling) while BC exerts positive forcing (warming). We analyze the effect of China's emissions of SO2, SO42-, OC and BC in 2000 and for three emission scenarios in 2030 on global surface aerosol concentrations, premature mortality, and radiative forcing (RF). Using global models of chemical transport (MOZART-2) and radiative transfer (GFDL RTM), and combining simulation results with gridded population data, mortality rates, and concentration-response relationships from the epidemiological literature, we estimate the contribution of Chinese aerosols to global annual premature mortality and to RF in 2000 and 2030. In 2000, we estimate these aerosols cause approximately 470 000 premature deaths in China and an additional 30000 deaths globally. In 2030, aggressive emission controls lead to a 50% reduction in premature deaths from the 2000 level to 240 000 in China and 10 000 elsewhere, while under a high emissions scenario premature deaths increase 50% from the 2000 level to 720 000 in China and to 40 000 elsewhere. Because the negative RF from SO2-4 and OC is larger than the positive forcing from BC, Chinese aerosols lead to global net direct RF of -74 mW m-2 in 2000 and between -15 and -97 mW m-2 in 2030 depending on the emissions scenario. Our analysis indicates that increased effort to reduce greenhouse gases is essential to address climate change as China's anticipated reduction of aerosols will result in the loss of net negative radiative forcing. |
| CC : | 001D16C02; 002B30A02A; 001E02D06 |
| FD : | Pollution air; Aérosol; Sulfate; Carbone organique; Matériau carboné; Dioxyde de soufre; Prévision pollution atmosphérique; Qualité air; Santé et environnement; Santé publique; Mortalité; Epidémiologie; Forçage; Transfert radiatif; Effet sur climat; Changement climatique; Chine |
| FG : | Climatologie dynamique; Asie |
| ED : | Air pollution; Aerosols; Sulfates; Organic carbon; Carbonaceous materials; Sulfur dioxide; Atmospheric pollution forecasting; Air quality; Health and environment; Public health; Mortality; Epidemiology; Forcing; Radiative transfer; Effect on climate; Climate change; China |
| EG : | Dynamical climatology; Asia |
| SD : | Contaminación aire; Aerosol; Sulfato; Carbono orgánico; Dióxido sulfúrico; Previsión contaminación del ambiente; Calidad aire; Salud y medio ambiente; Salud pública; Mortalidad; Epidemiología; Forzamiento; Transferencia radiativa; Efecto sobre clima; Cambio climático; China |
| LO : | INIST-8940B.354000187900490170 |
| ID : | 09-0377254 |
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Mauzerall</name><affiliation><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University</s1><s2>Princeton, NJ 08544</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ><sZ>4 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">INIST</idno><idno type="inist">09-0377254</idno><date when="2009">2009</date><idno type="stanalyst">PASCAL 09-0377254 INIST</idno><idno type="RBID">Pascal:09-0377254</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PascalFrancis/Corpus">000085</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a">Present and potential future contributions of sulfate, black and organic carbon aerosols from China to global air quality, premature mortality and radiative forcing</title><author><name sortKey="Saikawa, Eri" sort="Saikawa, Eri" uniqKey="Saikawa E" first="Eri" last="Saikawa">Eri Saikawa</name><affiliation><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University</s1><s2>Princeton, NJ 08544</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ><sZ>4 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Naik, Vaishali" sort="Naik, Vaishali" uniqKey="Naik V" first="Vaishali" last="Naik">Vaishali Naik</name><affiliation><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University</s1><s2>Princeton, NJ 08544</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ><sZ>4 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Horowitz, Larry W" sort="Horowitz, Larry W" uniqKey="Horowitz L" first="Larry W." last="Horowitz">Larry W. Horowitz</name><affiliation><inist:fA14 i1="02"><s1>Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory</s1><s2>Princeton, NJ 08540</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>3 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Junfeng Liu" sort="Junfeng Liu" uniqKey="Junfeng Liu" last="Junfeng Liu">JUNFENG LIU</name><affiliation><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University</s1><s2>Princeton, NJ 08544</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ><sZ>4 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mauzerall, Denise L" sort="Mauzerall, Denise L" uniqKey="Mauzerall D" first="Denise L." last="Mauzerall">Denise L. Mauzerall</name><affiliation><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University</s1><s2>Princeton, NJ 08544</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ><sZ>4 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j" type="main">Atmospheric environment : (1994)</title><title level="j" type="abbreviated">Atmos. environ. : (1994)</title><idno type="ISSN">1352-2310</idno><imprint><date when="2009">2009</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><title level="j" type="main">Atmospheric environment : (1994)</title><title level="j" type="abbreviated">Atmos. environ. : (1994)</title><idno type="ISSN">1352-2310</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Aerosols</term><term>Air pollution</term><term>Air quality</term><term>Atmospheric pollution forecasting</term><term>Carbonaceous materials</term><term>China</term><term>Climate change</term><term>Effect on climate</term><term>Epidemiology</term><term>Forcing</term><term>Health and environment</term><term>Mortality</term><term>Organic carbon</term><term>Public health</term><term>Radiative transfer</term><term>Sulfates</term><term>Sulfur dioxide</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Pascal" xml:lang="fr"><term>Pollution air</term><term>Aérosol</term><term>Sulfate</term><term>Carbone organique</term><term>Matériau carboné</term><term>Dioxyde de soufre</term><term>Prévision pollution atmosphérique</term><term>Qualité air</term><term>Santé et environnement</term><term>Santé publique</term><term>Mortalité</term><term>Epidémiologie</term><term>Forçage</term><term>Transfert radiatif</term><term>Effet sur climat</term><term>Changement climatique</term><term>Chine</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Aerosols are harmful to human health and have both direct and indirect effects on climate. China is a major contributor to global emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO<sub>2</sub>), a sulfate (SO<sup>2-</sup><sub>4</sub>) precursor, organic carbon (OC), and black carbon (BC) aerosols. Although increasingly examined, the effect of present and potential future levels of these emissions on global premature mortality and climate change has not been well quantified. Through both direct radiative effects and indirect effects on clouds, SO<sup>2-</sup><sub>4 </sub>and OC exert negative radiative forcing (cooling) while BC exerts positive forcing (warming). We analyze the effect of China's emissions of SO<sub>2</sub>, SO<sub>4</sub><sup>2-</sup>, OC and BC in 2000 and for three emission scenarios in 2030 on global surface aerosol concentrations, premature mortality, and radiative forcing (RF). Using global models of chemical transport (MOZART-2) and radiative transfer (GFDL RTM), and combining simulation results with gridded population data, mortality rates, and concentration-response relationships from the epidemiological literature, we estimate the contribution of Chinese aerosols to global annual premature mortality and to RF in 2000 and 2030. In 2000, we estimate these aerosols cause approximately 470 000 premature deaths in China and an additional 30000 deaths globally. In 2030, aggressive emission controls lead to a 50% reduction in premature deaths from the 2000 level to 240 000 in China and 10 000 elsewhere, while under a high emissions scenario premature deaths increase 50% from the 2000 level to 720 000 in China and to 40 000 elsewhere. Because the negative RF from SO<sup>2-</sup><sub>4</sub> and OC is larger than the positive forcing from BC, Chinese aerosols lead to global net direct RF of -74 mW m<sup>-2</sup> in 2000 and between -15 and -97 mW m<sup>-2</sup> in 2030 depending on the emissions scenario. Our analysis indicates that increased effort to reduce greenhouse gases is essential to address climate change as China's anticipated reduction of aerosols will result in the loss of net negative radiative forcing.</div></front></TEI><inist><standard h6="B"><pA><fA01 i1="01" i2="1"><s0>1352-2310</s0></fA01><fA03 i2="1"><s0>Atmos. environ. : (1994)</s0></fA03><fA05><s2>43</s2></fA05><fA06><s2>17</s2></fA06><fA08 i1="01" i2="1" l="ENG"><s1>Present and potential future contributions of sulfate, black and organic carbon aerosols from China to global air quality, premature mortality and radiative forcing</s1></fA08><fA11 i1="01" i2="1"><s1>SAIKAWA (Eri)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="02" i2="1"><s1>NAIK (Vaishali)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="03" i2="1"><s1>HOROWITZ (Larry W.)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="04" i2="1"><s1>JUNFENG LIU</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="05" i2="1"><s1>MAUZERALL (Denise L.)</s1></fA11><fA14 i1="01"><s1>Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University</s1><s2>Princeton, NJ 08544</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ><sZ>4 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA14 i1="02"><s1>Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory</s1><s2>Princeton, NJ 08540</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>3 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA20><s1>2814-2822</s1></fA20><fA21><s1>2009</s1></fA21><fA23 i1="01"><s0>ENG</s0></fA23><fA43 i1="01"><s1>INIST</s1><s2>8940B</s2><s5>354000187900490170</s5></fA43><fA44><s0>0000</s0><s1>© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.</s1></fA44><fA45><s0>3/4 p.</s0></fA45><fA47 i1="01" i2="1"><s0>09-0377254</s0></fA47><fA60><s1>P</s1></fA60><fA61><s0>A</s0></fA61><fA64 i1="01" i2="1"><s0>Atmospheric environment : (1994)</s0></fA64><fA66 i1="01"><s0>GBR</s0></fA66><fC01 i1="01" l="ENG"><s0>Aerosols are harmful to human health and have both direct and indirect effects on climate. China is a major contributor to global emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO<sub>2</sub>), a sulfate (SO<sup>2-</sup><sub>4</sub>) precursor, organic carbon (OC), and black carbon (BC) aerosols. Although increasingly examined, the effect of present and potential future levels of these emissions on global premature mortality and climate change has not been well quantified. Through both direct radiative effects and indirect effects on clouds, SO<sup>2-</sup><sub>4 </sub>and OC exert negative radiative forcing (cooling) while BC exerts positive forcing (warming). We analyze the effect of China's emissions of SO<sub>2</sub>, SO<sub>4</sub><sup>2-</sup>, OC and BC in 2000 and for three emission scenarios in 2030 on global surface aerosol concentrations, premature mortality, and radiative forcing (RF). Using global models of chemical transport (MOZART-2) and radiative transfer (GFDL RTM), and combining simulation results with gridded population data, mortality rates, and concentration-response relationships from the epidemiological literature, we estimate the contribution of Chinese aerosols to global annual premature mortality and to RF in 2000 and 2030. In 2000, we estimate these aerosols cause approximately 470 000 premature deaths in China and an additional 30000 deaths globally. In 2030, aggressive emission controls lead to a 50% reduction in premature deaths from the 2000 level to 240 000 in China and 10 000 elsewhere, while under a high emissions scenario premature deaths increase 50% from the 2000 level to 720 000 in China and to 40 000 elsewhere. Because the negative RF from SO<sup>2-</sup><sub>4</sub> and OC is larger than the positive forcing from BC, Chinese aerosols lead to global net direct RF of -74 mW m<sup>-2</sup> in 2000 and between -15 and -97 mW m<sup>-2</sup> in 2030 depending on the emissions scenario. Our analysis indicates that increased effort to reduce greenhouse gases is essential to address climate change as China's anticipated reduction of aerosols will result in the loss of net negative radiative forcing.</s0></fC01><fC02 i1="01" i2="X"><s0>001D16C02</s0></fC02><fC02 i1="02" i2="X"><s0>002B30A02A</s0></fC02><fC02 i1="03" i2="2"><s0>001E02D06</s0></fC02><fC03 i1="01" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Pollution air</s0><s5>01</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="01" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Air pollution</s0><s5>01</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="01" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Contaminación aire</s0><s5>01</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="02" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Aérosol</s0><s5>02</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="02" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Aerosols</s0><s5>02</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="02" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Aerosol</s0><s5>02</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="03" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Sulfate</s0><s2>NA</s2><s5>03</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="03" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Sulfates</s0><s2>NA</s2><s5>03</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="03" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Sulfato</s0><s2>NA</s2><s5>03</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="04" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Carbone organique</s0><s5>04</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="04" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Organic carbon</s0><s5>04</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="04" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Carbono orgánico</s0><s5>04</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="05" i2="3" l="FRE"><s0>Matériau carboné</s0><s5>05</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="05" i2="3" l="ENG"><s0>Carbonaceous materials</s0><s5>05</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="06" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Dioxyde de soufre</s0><s2>NK</s2><s2>FX</s2><s5>06</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="06" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Sulfur dioxide</s0><s2>NK</s2><s2>FX</s2><s5>06</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="06" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Dióxido sulfúrico</s0><s2>NK</s2><s2>FX</s2><s5>06</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="07" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Prévision pollution atmosphérique</s0><s5>07</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="07" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Atmospheric pollution forecasting</s0><s5>07</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="07" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Previsión contaminación del ambiente</s0><s5>07</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="08" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Qualité air</s0><s5>08</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="08" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Air quality</s0><s5>08</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="08" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Calidad aire</s0><s5>08</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="09" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Santé et environnement</s0><s5>09</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="09" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Health and environment</s0><s5>09</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="09" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Salud y medio ambiente</s0><s5>09</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="10" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Santé publique</s0><s5>10</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="10" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Public health</s0><s5>10</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="10" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Salud pública</s0><s5>10</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="11" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Mortalité</s0><s5>11</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="11" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Mortality</s0><s5>11</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="11" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Mortalidad</s0><s5>11</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="12" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Epidémiologie</s0><s5>12</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="12" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Epidemiology</s0><s5>12</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="12" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Epidemiología</s0><s5>12</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="13" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Forçage</s0><s5>13</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="13" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Forcing</s0><s5>13</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="13" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Forzamiento</s0><s5>13</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="14" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Transfert radiatif</s0><s5>14</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="14" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Radiative transfer</s0><s5>14</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="14" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Transferencia radiativa</s0><s5>14</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="15" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Effet sur climat</s0><s5>15</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="15" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Effect on climate</s0><s5>15</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="15" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Efecto sobre clima</s0><s5>15</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="16" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Changement climatique</s0><s5>16</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="16" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Climate change</s0><s5>16</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="16" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Cambio climático</s0><s5>16</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="17" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Chine</s0><s2>NG</s2><s5>31</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="17" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>China</s0><s2>NG</s2><s5>31</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="17" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>China</s0><s2>NG</s2><s5>31</s5></fC03><fC07 i1="01" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Climatologie dynamique</s0></fC07><fC07 i1="01" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Dynamical climatology</s0></fC07><fC07 i1="01" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Climatología dinámica</s0></fC07><fC07 i1="02" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Asie</s0><s2>NG</s2></fC07><fC07 i1="02" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Asia</s0><s2>NG</s2></fC07><fC07 i1="02" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Asia</s0><s2>NG</s2></fC07><fN21><s1>271</s1></fN21></pA></standard><server><NO>PASCAL 09-0377254 INIST</NO><ET>Present and potential future contributions of sulfate, black and organic carbon aerosols from China to global air quality, premature mortality and radiative forcing</ET><AU>SAIKAWA (Eri); NAIK (Vaishali); HOROWITZ (Larry W.); JUNFENG LIU; MAUZERALL (Denise L.)</AU><AF>Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University/Princeton, NJ 08544/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 4 aut., 5 aut.); Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/Princeton, NJ 08540/Etats-Unis (3 aut.)</AF><DT>Publication en série; Niveau analytique</DT><SO>Atmospheric environment : (1994); ISSN 1352-2310; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2009; Vol. 43; No. 17; Pp. 2814-2822; Bibl. 3/4 p.</SO><LA>Anglais</LA><EA>Aerosols are harmful to human health and have both direct and indirect effects on climate. China is a major contributor to global emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO<sub>2</sub>), a sulfate (SO<sup>2-</sup><sub>4</sub>) precursor, organic carbon (OC), and black carbon (BC) aerosols. Although increasingly examined, the effect of present and potential future levels of these emissions on global premature mortality and climate change has not been well quantified. Through both direct radiative effects and indirect effects on clouds, SO<sup>2-</sup><sub>4 </sub>and OC exert negative radiative forcing (cooling) while BC exerts positive forcing (warming). We analyze the effect of China's emissions of SO<sub>2</sub>, SO<sub>4</sub><sup>2-</sup>, OC and BC in 2000 and for three emission scenarios in 2030 on global surface aerosol concentrations, premature mortality, and radiative forcing (RF). Using global models of chemical transport (MOZART-2) and radiative transfer (GFDL RTM), and combining simulation results with gridded population data, mortality rates, and concentration-response relationships from the epidemiological literature, we estimate the contribution of Chinese aerosols to global annual premature mortality and to RF in 2000 and 2030. In 2000, we estimate these aerosols cause approximately 470 000 premature deaths in China and an additional 30000 deaths globally. In 2030, aggressive emission controls lead to a 50% reduction in premature deaths from the 2000 level to 240 000 in China and 10 000 elsewhere, while under a high emissions scenario premature deaths increase 50% from the 2000 level to 720 000 in China and to 40 000 elsewhere. Because the negative RF from SO<sup>2-</sup><sub>4</sub> and OC is larger than the positive forcing from BC, Chinese aerosols lead to global net direct RF of -74 mW m<sup>-2</sup> in 2000 and between -15 and -97 mW m<sup>-2</sup> in 2030 depending on the emissions scenario. Our analysis indicates that increased effort to reduce greenhouse gases is essential to address climate change as China's anticipated reduction of aerosols will result in the loss of net negative radiative forcing.</EA><CC>001D16C02; 002B30A02A; 001E02D06</CC><FD>Pollution air; Aérosol; Sulfate; Carbone organique; Matériau carboné; Dioxyde de soufre; Prévision pollution atmosphérique; Qualité air; Santé et environnement; Santé publique; Mortalité; Epidémiologie; Forçage; Transfert radiatif; Effet sur climat; Changement climatique; Chine</FD><FG>Climatologie dynamique; Asie</FG><ED>Air pollution; Aerosols; Sulfates; Organic carbon; Carbonaceous materials; Sulfur dioxide; Atmospheric pollution forecasting; Air quality; Health and environment; Public health; Mortality; Epidemiology; Forcing; Radiative transfer; Effect on climate; Climate change; China</ED><EG>Dynamical climatology; Asia</EG><SD>Contaminación aire; Aerosol; Sulfato; Carbono orgánico; Dióxido sulfúrico; Previsión contaminación del ambiente; Calidad aire; Salud y medio ambiente; Salud pública; Mortalidad; Epidemiología; Forzamiento; Transferencia radiativa; Efecto sobre clima; Cambio climático; China</SD><LO>INIST-8940B.354000187900490170</LO><ID>09-0377254</ID></server></inist></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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